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As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to hope that he can achieve his goals by biding his time and waiting for Western support for Kyiv to wither while maintaining steady military pressure along the stalemated front line. Despite the Kremlin’s expectations of Ukraine’s collapse, however, the conflict has taken a heavy toll on Russia, draining its economic and military resources and fueling social tensions that are starting to emerge despite the tightly controlled political system. Putin has repeatedly signaled a desire to negotiate an end to the fighting, but he warns that Russia will hold onto its gains.

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