US Recession Watch, January 2021 - Slowing Growth Evident as Calendar Turns Advertisement
US Recession Watch Overview:
Although US Treasury yields have risen in recent weeks, 4Q’20 growth expectations have slid. A double dip recession may or may not be avoided in 1Q’21, depending upon the timing of US fiscal stimulus.
The New York Nowcast estimate for 4Q’20 GDP is at +2.58%, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is pointing to loftier+7.5% growth.
Rates markets continue to forecast no change in the Federal Reserve’s main interest rate through January 2022; the Fed has pledged to keep rates low through 2023.
Making Sense of US Economic Data
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US Recession Watch, December 2020 - Yield Curve Hides Slowing Economy
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US Recession Watch Overview:
The US Treasury yield curve has steepened in recent weeks (long-end rates rising faster than short-end rates), but that might not mean that the US economy is out of the woods from the coronavirus pandemic.
Q4’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow projects an +11.2% real quarterly growth rate, but data momentum is slowing, and it’s possible that failure by the US Congress to agree to fiscal stimulus will handicap the economy in Q1’21.
Traders continue to anticipate no change in interest rates by the Federal Reserve through January 2022; the Fed has promised to keep rates low through 2023.
yield curves and that kind of stuff, how are you keeping up, the president had a couple days with lengthy q&as with the press, he seems to enjoy that back and forth but he s getting a lot of questions on a slew of topics. he doesn t he is. i was in the one outside two days ago was a two days ago? the news cycle is so fast. we talked about greenland and afghanistan. i think he does enjoy engaging with the press in that way and ripped on some reporters very specifically but he s making a lot of news, every question he answers makes news and he does give mixed signals. is talking a lot about the economy, headlines about a recession have been getting under his skin, he says the economy is great but rips on the third are not doing more to reduce interest rates which would help the economy even more