We will dissect the current economic landscape, where the Federal Reserve Bank of NY has signaled a striking 67.3% likelihood of a recession within the next 12 months – the highest since the 1980s. With a historical lens, we'll explore the patterns that have emerged before previous recessions and the unprecedented nature of the current prolonged yield curve inversion.
really getting them to put their home on the market. aishah: so some analysts out there, you know, jay powell, they re watching everything he says and does, and some folks are saying he might hold these rates steady. others are saying they re going to go up again, and you just mentioned you think they re going to go up again. why? well, it s i don t want to get too technical about it, but, you know, long-term interest rates are lower than short-term interest rates, and that s not the way it s supposed to be. the curve of interest rates known as the yield curve and the longer end of the curve is lower than the short end of the curve. at some point when the market normalizes, the long-term rates will end up going up and the short-term rates will end up falling. so if you re a betting person, you ve got to expect that they ll hold around mortgage rates around 7.5 if not inch up above 8%. aishah: mitch, i didn t hear any good news in that segment.
when it was 12 and they had to come back again. then inflation was 15. it is far better policy choice which they seem to be following focused on fighting inflation one times that might mean more pain because it is better off in the system in the long run, creates better opportunities for business men and consumers to make long-term decisions, they have confidence in the future of inflation. paul: are you surprised, 45 seconds left, are you surprised we ve got the recession so far. there could be one in the next year. i still think there could be when. i have been surprised. we have been incorrect in that supposition but i do think if you look at the yield curve, decline in corporate profits and the decline in banks willingness to make loans it
We expect a hawkish market reaction after Powell’s address tonight. He’ll put the tone on keeping rates at peak levels for an extended period of time. June dots and July FOMC Minutes clearly show a preference to hike policy rates one more time, which the Fed chair might flag.