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The dollar has been rising since May 4. Last week, on May 26, the DXY Index reached 104.34. It hasn't been this high since mid-March 2023. What is driving the U.S. currency up and, consequently, pushing the EUR/USD pair down? According to analysts at Commerzbank, "the absolute calmness in the options market suggests that the driving force behind the EUR/USD exchange rate is monetary policy considerations rather than ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations." It is worth noting that the probability of a rate hike at the June 14 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting increased throughout May. At the beginning of the month, the likelihood of a rate increase was close to 0%, but by the end of the month, it reached 50%. It turns out that the U.S. economy is holding up very well compared to other economies, and the deterioration in lending has not been as severe or rapid as initially feared.

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