showed that romney actually won among those that showed up to the caucuses caring about experience and electability but he lost on values. of course he lost by double digits to mike huckabee because 80% of republicans came thinking about values first, not thinking about electability and making political calculations. will turnout be similar to four years ago, when a record 120,000 participants showed up on the republican side, 60% of whom were self-described evangelicals. that s what we don t know. who shows up and what is their motivation for showing up. the unpredictability in iowa underscores the fluidity of the republican race overall. according to gallup there have been four different front runners, seven different lead changes. rick perry, herman cain and newt gingrich have all held the lead at some time. voters keep coming back to mitt romney.