Dollar emerged as the best performer last week, fueled by hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The greenback's surge raises questions: is this merely a recovery from recent losses, or the beginning of a new uptrend? While Dollar gains support, rising risk-on sentiment in the markets seems to limit its ascent. On the other hand, the potential for a bounce in treasury yields could bolster Dollar's position. The tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces could continue, and it remains uncertain which one will ultimately prevail.
Anyway, the break of 94.63 minor support indicates that AUD/JPY's corrective recovery from 93.22 has completed at 95.84 already, after hitting near term falling trend line resistance. Deeper fall is expected to retest 93.22 support first. Firm break there will resume the whole decline from 97.66.
While Dollar is trading as the worst performer of the week at the time of writing, Yen's decline looks finally taking off today. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda repeated once again the need to maintain current ultra-loose monetary monetary. At the same time, some other major central banks are continuing or even restarting tightening. So far, Aussie is still in the pole position to end as the strongest one for the week, followed by Swiss France and Yen. Euro is following Dollar and Yen as the third weakest.
While Dollar engaged in retreat for most of the day, some buying appears to emerge again in early US session. A surprising rise in both headline and core PCE inflation is considered to be a key factor driving this resurgence. While it's unsure whether that could result in sustainable rally, the sentiment should stabilize the greenback at least.