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Коментари - Галъп : ИТН с по-голям шанс от ГЕРБ-СДС за победа на изборите
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¿Cuánto tiempo más puede este trío permanecer juntos?
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you went through a thorough review. you have taken it on the chin. i ve been among those that have been very publicly critical of what gallup was doing over the years. let s start with what you believe is the biggest problem you faced and that happened to be it appears number one on your list is this likely voter screen. i would even broaden that up and say likely voter process. how do we actually figure out who is going to turn out and vote. that s a moving target. that s changing. we re using a model that was developed decades ago. it s probably outdated. probably needs to be changed. and our analysis of where we were, we were three points romney leading among registered voters and model moved it down to our final estimate which was one-point for romney. that was too much. if we had just moved the numbers like the average of other polls, we would have been significantly more toward obama. that feeds to be looked at. we re going to use new jersey
none of the predebate, only the worst of the immediate post debate. sort of remains to be seen how that shakes out. that s very helpful. secretary reich, if the gallup tracking poll indicates we re back where we were before the debate, could it be that the one night stand of romney s performance really isn t swaying voters as much as maybe a drop in the jobless rate to below 8%? martin, voters are concerned only about really one thing, and that is jobs. the second thing is the economy, but the economy to the extent it improves the jobs situation. and undoubtedly the job number and the job report friday had a very positive effect on voters. jound lying the presidential contest is who do you trust more to get jobs back but professor reich, i m being told every day these polls are a conspiracy, these jobs numbers were a conspiracy. the bureau wation involved in
good morning to both of you. what do you i this, tony. new game. what do you think?. the proof is in the pudding. i ll say this is not something that was anticipated a week ago. many people thought governor romney at best may be able to hold his own during these debates. we actually thought governor romney would have to face the fact that the media would have given the debate to president obama regardless. now you see completely counter narrative from both sides universally agreeing that he hit the knockout blow on president obama and a five-point spread in one week in gallup. i know you will have scott rasmussen said in a few minutes. the race is two point advantage for romney, pulled ahead in virginia, and pulled ahead in florida and closed gap significantly in ohio. playing off fence at right time. you have to have a good october to be president. bill: you mentioned three big states. we ll get to that in 10 minutes time. kirsten, what do you think about the mo? is it now in mitt s
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