telling us to look for that in terms of college education versus non-college educated voter. what surprised you? since you got a lot right, what surprised you last night? i think the fact was that even though the polls were pretty good, the errors tended to overwhelmingly be in states with white voters without a college degree. look at missouri, indiana, look at states like west virgini virginia,montana. we got the forecast right in west virginia and montana, tended up being a lot more republican leaning than we thought. in missouri and indiana, it flipped the races the other way. that s the thing, it s not a shock that the democrats lost in missouri and indiana. the margins seemed to be much bigger. it is modern world. talking about in all of the states, the republicans ran about 60% among whites without a college degree. that s what trump has done. the trade trump is imposing on the party, we see it clearly. strong with rural, white, blue dollar, and evangelical whites. but b
bret: welcome back to america s election headquarters, and it is another countdown. it is really countdowns all night. every half hour until we get to not o clock. and there is the next poll closing. martha: 7:30 now, polls have closed in three more states, including two of national interest, west virgini west virginia, ohio. bret: in west virginia, trying to fend off republican attorney general patrick morrisey. too early to declare at this hour. martha: ohio, former senator mike dewine in a tight race with democrat richard cordray, barack obama s first director of the bureau. who will succeed senator john kasich. bret: sherrod brown is
we ll see what happens. it is high-stakes and everyone is super engaged. what would be the october surprise? i think kavanaugh is it. for republicans, they can benefit in certain places in states like north dakota, it s going to be hard for her to come back from that. missouri, indiana, west virgini west virginia, they can help democrats in house seats and it might help they are racing really tight in senate races like new jersey and florida, may be nevada and arizona. i think from that perspective we don t know. there are three sets of parties call it the kavanaugh blast zone. they aren t happy about it. the first ones would be red state democrats who face voters in five weeks, people like heidi heitkamp, joe manchin, joe
i work for the people of indian indiana. bret: for democrats especially moderate democrats, the trump issue can be a dangerous one to sway voters. if you focus too much on trump you made not be focusing on the issues that voters care about. when you look at the polls and ask what issues people care about the most, these are bread-and-butter issues not the controversy that surround the white house. bret: there are five incumbent democrats up for reelection in states that donald trump won by 18% or more in 2016. i mentioned joe donnelly in indiana, you also have claire mccaskill in missouri, you have jon tester in montana, heidi heitkamp in north dakota, and joe manchin in west virgini west virginia. president trump has and will continue to travel to all five of these states to campaign. as it stands right now according to the latest polls with the caveat that most of these races are still very tight and could go either way.
president trump, in this we believe in this and we believe in your commitment to making sure american miners get back to work. thank you. thank you. [applause] this is a big day for kentucky. thank president trump for getting rid of this job killing regulation. it will ready to cost us thousands of jobs. nobody cared about kentucky. eastern kentucky voted 75% for donald j. trump. [applause] let me say something very quickly. there s no miner here that is not an environmentalist. there s a balance between environment and economy. these miners are the first to tell you, they re in the woods, hunting and fishing and doing everything possible. all they want is respect because of the hard work for them and fathers and grandfathers and all of their families have done. so proud. these are all west virgini west