they ve doubled work patterns. they ve gone quasi war mobilisation without full mobilisation. they seem to be able to find spare parts for tanks and ships from abroad through what they call parallel imports or smuggling. so, russia s leader buckles down for a long war and was apparently dismissive of the recent african peace initiative, preferring to continue to fight. but could he be toppled if ukraine s counteroffensive succeeds? i think a major reverse in the south which threatens crimea, which putin s put so much stake on. if the bridges are dropped again, if russia has to evacuate forces and people from crimea, that s going to have political repercussions. and then the question is, of course, how does it layout? and then the question is, of course, how does it play out? i think the centre, putin s power, the tarnish. it s been weakened. a feeling of a slight sense of decay. there is a rout, a major reverse by the ukrainians, going to the heart of his grip on power and
of certain missiles, must now also reckon with increased production in arms factories and some ability to get around western sanctions. certainly the military industrial complex, i think there s always that phrase that people use about russia not being as strong or as weak as it seems. i saw an assessment from di last year that russia was to run out of barrels and rounds and it was all over bar the shouting and this will enable the ukrainians to sweep the russians into the sea. that s defence intelligence. sorry, when you say from di? yeah, it was from defence intelligence. sorry, it was defence intelligence. but it was also used by the chief of defence staff. i remember talking to another senior journalist and we both sucked our teeth a little bit and said putin has brought the promise of unlimited money. he s brought in new leadership under gerasimov, who is a very close ally to putin. he sent medvedev into the factories to threaten them with stalinist management methods, including e
more positive leader would come through but i m not convinced. and while putin manoeuvres to remain in power, what about characters like yevgeny prigozhin? he s been outspoken about what he calls needless casualties and is now being forced under tighter control. could he or another commander emerged as challengers to the president? if you look ahead to 2024, the elections and putin s presumably going to run on some platform. what platform s he going to run on, and what role do the mercenaries and these embittered men play in that? so, it s useful to have prigozhin as an asset on your side. so i d be surprised if, for example, if prigozhin hasn t been targeted. so, somebody s protecting him. so, who s using him? who s protecting him and what role can he play in the elections to frighten the elites and also to perhaps act as a magnet for those troops coming back from the front line?
i think the centre, putin s power, the tarnish. it s been weakened. a feeling of a slight sense of decay. there is a rout, a major reverse by the ukrainians, going to the heart of his grip on power and then we re into scenarios about where we go next. in terms of those scenarios, clearly an awful lot of people in the west don t like putin and presumably would be pleased if he fell from power. would you be in the pleased camp or the worried camp or both? what would you see as the possibilities if he fell suddenly? i m not convinced that the demise or retirement or elite transfer from mr putin to another leader necessarily brings peace and democracy and freedom and an end to the war. i think that the challenge represented by putin is a generational struggle. it s about extreme nationalism. it s about russia turning away from the west and international norms. it s not about one man. there are deeper issues at play. obviously one would hope that a more liberal, more accommodating,