and not looking for a job, that has also gone down with older workers returning to the workforce. but there is a record number of people who cannot work because of long term sickness so is a mixed picture when it comes to the labour market and when you look at interest rates, this is one set of figures they are going to be looking at. we have inflation numbers tomorrow and then another set of inflation numbers and wage data before we get the next bank of england decision. too early to say in the smart money seems to be that we will get a next raised interest rate but the one after that we may have a pause or maybe another increase, that is where there seems to be disagreement. to be disagreement. peter, thanks for “oininu to be disagreement. peter, thanks forjoining us- from economics to celebrity creativity: the concept of a celebrity creative director appears to be back in vogue.
live now to michael, an economics professor at oxford university. we are seeing this rise in pay, but is that outstripping the pace of price rises? so is it really good news? it is slightly good news in the sense that this month, we already have the inflation numbers forjune, the wage data goes up tojune, and for the first time in a while in real terms, wages have grown. but you have to remember that wages have actually been falling since october 2021 in terms of purchasing power, and so we are starting to turn the corner in terms of wages, so that is slightly good news but there s still a long way to go. there s also other news with this release is that vacancies are down again and the unemployment rate has gone up a little bit, so there are signs of a slowing job market. so there are signs of a slowing ob market. , ., ., market. so it is not all positive. you mentioned
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wage data we are seeing, for example in the uk. what we do need is ultimately inflation falling because then those negotiations become much easier than negotiations taking place at an unfortunate time, if they take based on three or six months time the discussion will be easier because headline inflation will be much lower. at this point in time headline inflation has remained stubbornly high making those wage negotiations more difficulty, ultimately people to need to look after their finances at a time when there is a squeeze from every angle. what is clear is the bank of england will continue with its pathway of increasing interest rates, of course andrew bailey very clear on several occasions at the mansion house speech and with the publication of the financial stability report, that inflation is his main focus, the 2% target has to be met. in the us they are not far off at 3% yet we are a long way