had lost his seat in 18, won it back in 2020. this is the central valley of california, you see less than 40% of the vote up and counted here. valid dale leading, but it s a competitive race. that s the kind that would break the democratic wave. they would actually hit that 218 number. another example here, the 41st district of california, can covered, long serving republican, the district has change in redistricting. he close to have the vote tally there. calvert with a narrow lead over his democratic challenger. these are the sorts of districts that are bit of a stretch here perhaps on paper for democrats, but they got to pick off a couple of these on top of winning the other ones i was showing you. that would be the difference between falling just short of a house majority and actually getting one. according to our nbc news this is in this model, the democrats do have a real chance of retaining control of the house of representatives. it s a wild conversation to be having four day
them, and it s crucial to see what the margin is. just be leading by a significant amount to overtake laxalt statewide. that may come later in the night, but again, i don t mean to tease this and not follow through, but usually, my experience with maricopa has been that they have these updates, and they re usually pretty quick. it s 18, and we still don t have this vote tally, this release. as soon as we get a, i ll let you know. can i ask you a clarifying question. you explained it, but i want to make sure to i am getting it. i feel fuzzy on this. it seems to me, the way that you are describing the outstanding votes, the votes still to be counted in nevada and arizona is that in nevada, they may be more predictable in terms of their partisan camps, while in arizona, it s a little bit more of a jump ball in terms of what the likely partisan character at those votes is, is that fair? the reason is that in washington county, where reno is, they actually gave a burqa of those votes th
have this vote tally, this release. as soon as we get it, i ll let you know. can i ask you a clarifying question. you explained it, but i want to make sure to i am getting it. i feel fuzzy on this. it seems to me, the way that you are describing the outstanding votes, the votes still to be counted in nevada and arizona is that in nevada, they may be more predictable in terms of their partisan camps, whereas in arizona, it s a little bit more of a jump ball in terms of what the likely partisan character at those votes is, is that fair? the reason is that in washington county, where reno is, they actually gave a burqa of those votes that arrived on election day. they actually told you how many of them were by republicans, how many were by democrats. the number who wererepublican outnumbered the democrats. we know that overall in the early vote in washoe county, there were more democrats than republicans who are voting, so it s a reversal from that turned. in arizona, and a maricopa,
these votes. she says if there is a dispute, that she will not have anything to do with touching any of these ballots just to make sure this is fair, this is a fair election. she doesn t want to have her hands anywhere near any of the votes. she is going to wait and see, she says, who wins this election. and we ll have to wait and see too, jake. sara sidner in phoenix, arizona, thanks so much. 27% of the vote remains uncounted in arizona. david, have we figured out what percentage of that, the candidates would need to win in order to be triumphant? our colleagues at our decision desk are doing that math constantly. that s what they do to try and get to projection-level competence. we see the vote tally on the left of where it currently stands with 73% of the vote in, 51.2% of the vote for mark kelly. now we think and these are estimates, jake. we think approximately 700,000
there certainly are enough ballots, directly, for cortez masto to catch laxalt statewide, but she is the one by big margin. when we do get updates, really crucial to see what the cortez masto has to be leading them, and it s crucial to see what the margin is. she s got to be leading by a significant amount to overtake laxalt statewide. that may come later in the night, but again, i don t mean to tease this and not follow through, but usually, my experience with maricopa has been that they have these updates, and they re usually pretty quick. it s 8:18, and we still don t have this vote tally, this release. as soon as we get it, i ll let you know. can i ask you a clarifying question. you explained it, but i want to make sure to i am getting it. i feel fuzzy on this. it seems to me, the way that you are describing the outstanding votes, the votes