blue mirage. virtually all the early votes is mail-in votes. they announce them early. we ve seen this before. tom tillis was behind in his races, won by several tens of thousands of votes, because the late vote to come in is the vote cast on election day. just to requeue, ohio was a hold. finishes also a republican seat they re trying to hold to know as is north carolina. yep. i have now for you the political comment of the evening. okay. maybe of all time. over on msnbc that the gop s dominance in florida is all about gerrymandering. [laughter] that s a story they will tell themselves. incidentally, on north carolina, just a few moments ago, the lead was 53,000. it s now down to 32,000.
for the democratic candidate. even if hispanics are coming out, that s not a seal for hillary. a vote cast on election day is worth the same as an early vote. with some of the cutbacks in the alrea early vote hours, say in north carolina, we can t exactly know how the electorate is going to change too much with african-americans. it wouldn t be surprised if turnout was down given of course that barack obama was the first major party nominee who was black. will both of you agree this will get resolves earlier rather than later on tuesday, because some of the crucial states are in the eastern time zone. if she wins north carolina, it s over. if she wins florida, it s over, right? i m going to ask you now, i am going to go with sam wang, 312. you must have an electoral vote count that you have figured out. i ll go with 318. okay. 322. higher. all right.
they may well come out still, but so far, the clearest and easiest to identify change in the electorate is the influx of hispanic voters. what about african-american voting? numbers have fallen, but perhaps it s coming up a little bit. the real question is, though, is what percentage of these hispanics are going to vote for hillary clinton. remember, african-americans have voted traditionally 90, 95 for the democratic candidate. even if hispanics are coming out, that s not a seal for hillary. a vote cast on election day is worth the same as an early vote. with some of the cutbacks in the early vote hours, say in north carolina, we can t exactly know how the electorate is going to change too much with african-americans. it wouldn t be surprised if turnout was down given of course that barack obama was the first major party nominee who was black. will both of you agree this will get resolved earlier rather