that this was going to be a three-dose vaccine. we knew that because we gave the first-two doses so close together. and when you do that, you don t get long-term, durable protection so it was a matter of time before we were going to accept expect a third immunization in order to give a really important boost in antibody responses, virus neutralizing antibody and durability of protection. so, we knew this was coming. and then, on wednesday, israelis published in new england journal of medicine an important study showing those 60 years of age who only received two doses were going into the hospital at at pretty high rates and lots of breakthrough covid infections. where if they got a third immunization, they they did much better and there was a 20% decline in hospitalizations, tenfold decline in cases. so at a minimum, i would have thought they would have brought that down to 60 years of age. and then, today, the centers for disease control in their mmwr,
week in september. dr. hotez, can i go back to something that you said because you talked about, you know, the third shot might be the last, right, and that we may not have to get boosters every year. is that because the virus keeps mutating? the more people who don t get their shots, who are no, t vaccinates, it allows the virus to continue to mutate. we get a flu shot, and the flu shot is updated every single year. many people thought it would be the same with the covid shot. but why are you saying that? with influenza, there are many dramatic changes to the structure of the virus, and it s really a completely different virus. it undergoes aprocess that we re not really seeing with covid. it may be the case if you get really jacked up levels of virus neutralizing antibody, that will be sufficient to provide that extra level of protection that we re going to need.
have a big drop in neutralizing antibodies against the delta variant. again, there could still be good levels of protective immunity but concerning the levels of virus neutralizing antibody drops and similar looks to me similar to the drop seen against the b 1351 variant from south africa, which by the way still protected although at lower levels. so the question is going to be based on this would you do anything or whether you would wait for an actual efficacy data and under a real life situation and then what would you do? would you recommend a second immunization with the j&j vaccine or a booster with one of the mnra vaccines? back earlier on when we talked about the j&j vaccine, i ve always thought it would be a two dose vaccine based on the good levels of neutralizing antibody you get with two doses. let me ask you when we talk about the real world. delta is surging and surging
need a third immunization of the vaccination, a third mrna vaccine, yet another boost. that may be it for a while. the reason is because as good a job as we re doing overall in the u.s., we ve done a terrible job in africa and latin america and southeast asia and given new variants an opportunity to arise and emerge. so by giving that third immunization we ll have higher levels of virus neutralizing antibody. i ve been saying for all of 2021 so far we ll likely need a third immunization i would imagine next year. that s point one. the confusion, i think, is the press release from pfizer that says we need that third immunization because of the delta variant. that s not necessarily so. it looks like the two immunizations for most people
long time, an unknown period of time. this is the message we have to get across. we re seeing better vaccination rates among older americans. it s all the young people who have gotten this disinformation that they don t need to get vaccinated and remind them what long-haul covid can do to their ability to function at a high level for months or years to come. quality of life could be severely impacted. on friday you told my colleague boosters will be needed eventually, but we don t need it urgently. what would tell you now is the time? what is that threshold or trigger point? the reason is because as good a job as we re doing in the u.s. and some parts of the country, the rest of the world is mostly unvaccinated. africa, latin america, southeast asia. more variants are going to come in. giving a third immunization is increasing our levels of virus