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Macquarie’s magnificent Viktor Schvets on the tough choices facing China:
While quantifying grow this always more of an art than a science, in China it is even more so. Based on the Soviet-style production and growth targets (vs expenditure derived ex-post estimates elsewhere), China’s economic results are even more opaque than usual. This has created a vibrant field of studies, with views ranging from China soon overtaking the US to China being a ‘Paper Tiger’.
At the heart of this debate is the productivity trajectory, and ability of China to improve efficiency while satisfying a myriad of social and political objectives. Depending on methodology employed, China’s TFP (or Total Factor Productivity, after excluding contribution of labour and capital) has either already gone negative or has suffered from a significant slowdown. One of the best sources of productivity data (i.e.,Conference Board–TED) has alternative measures
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TSLombard with the note:
With vaccines curbing the potency of COVID-19, policymakers can begin to unwind their fiscal and monetary support programmes–starting with QE. Central banks’ asset purchases have had only modest effects on GDP and inflation, but they are important for financial markets. While the authorities will avoid a new”taper tantrum”, investors should expect more volatile asset prices.
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Global policymakers are looking to unwind the massive support programmes they introduced at the start of the pandemic. Fiscal policy–crucial for preventing mass unemployment and a wave of bankruptcies–will tighten automatically as economies return to normal. But central banks will have to plan their own exit more deliberately, starting with the decision about how to end QE.