china watcher gorden chang warning we must prepare for war because of it. he means what he says. it s all coming up. welcome, everybody. glad to have you. i m neil cavuto. let s get to it with jacqui at the white house. jacqui? the washington post has been reporting that the chinese spy balloon s path over the u.s. may have been driven by the wind and that analysts are examining the possibility that the chinese did not intend to penetrate the american heartland with their surveillance equipment. i m told that that is not the full story. we re learning a lot more right now. officials tell me that we don t know if the balloon s direction over the continental u.s. was intentional. because it s a balloon, its trajectory depends on a range of factors that includes the wind. the balloon also went over guam, we ve learned, which is u.s. territory. it also later loitered over several sensitive sites in the continue continental u.s. the chinese still had the ability to maneuver
deal. they re a risk. so they town graded the u.s. they could do that again. that means higher interest rates on everything. that s everything we you ll for our credit instruments. so as you tip toe up to the x date, you re running risks in advance of even hitting that wall. since we don t know what the x date is, cbo has it past june, treasury has it in june. that lends another piece of uncertainty to the entire situation. neil: you think with a wink and a not and think it s probably october or september and they get it to close to the wire? people do believe that the treasury has an interest saying we re out of room in june knowing that will force congress to move and they won t get in trouble. that thinking is dangerous. it does lead to keep prolonging things and that of course is where the risk is the most
it will average more than two trillion each year over the next decade. treasury estimates the debt ceiling hits in june. senate majority leader chuck schumer views treasury s date as the real date. neil? neil: thanks for that, chad. chad pergram. so what do we do? what constitutes our running against a wall and defaulting? douglas joins us, the former cbo director himself. doug, what would do it? what would define a default? a failure to make timely payments on interest or principal on u.s. treasuries. that s something that we ve never done at a large scale. the concern here is that if they do not raise or suspend the debt limit, the treasury would be unable to sort the bills in to these are interest and principal and these are social security, these are medicare. which ones do we want to pay. instead, they re unable to pay