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Debt Ceiling, $3 trillion annual deficits and a deep recession None of us own enough gold and silver for what is coming – Investment Watch
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Via BofA:
Discharged from hospital. We saw a 2,091 person decrease in the number of people hospitalized in the US with Covid-19 over the last week, the first decline since September 23rd. Just four days ago there was a 7,167 person weekly increase and since then the number has declined gradually. While the decrease is broad-based (31 of 51 states+DC), the decline in weekly change of course is dominated by, FL, GA, NY and TX. Further, inspection shows continued improvement in the fall outbreak states (mainly in the Midwest) and stabilization in some of the worst more recent winter outbreaks, such as in Los Angeles County that saw a weekly decline of 221 after having peaked at an increase of 1,612 on December 22nd.
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Via BofA fundie survey:
bulls adding exposure in consumer, commodities, EM (60% say EMbest performer in’21);
equity “barbell” strategies all the rage; bears note cash levels fall to 4.0%, triggering an FMS Cash Rule“sell signal”;
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator up to 6.7.On vaccine:askedwhenCOVID-19vaccine will start positively impacting economy, 42%of investors replied Q2’21, 28% said Q1’21, 19% said Q3’21.On cash&risk:asset allocators underweight cash first time since May’13;
cash level down to 4.0% triggering FMS Cash Rule“sell signal”(back-tested 1-month S&P500return=-3.2%-seeGlobalInvestmentStrategy:Rules&Tools,12Nov2020);
COVID-19as #1 tail risk down from 41% to 30%, but fears of inflation (24%) &fiscal policy drag(18%)rising.On macro & AA: net 89% expect stronger growth in’21; record 87% expect higherlong-term yields; asked what corporations should do with cash investors split betweenimprove balance sheet (
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