Countries, canada and mexico, are our number one and number three markets for agricultural exports. Problems withn our exports imposed by the countries, particularly canada, has been very restrictive of our wheat and dairy. That is one thing. The more important thing, in some ways, are the new rules of origin, which will guarantee many more automotive jobs coming back to the u. S. That had been sent overseas by the poorly drafted rules of our origin in the original nafta. 75,000eve there will be new jobs created in automotive, a total of at least 175,000 in all sectors of the economy. Give us a secretary, sense as best you understand it, once usmca goes into effect, will there be more trade or less . Pat toomey has said that we think this will actually be trade restrictive. What do you think . Wilbur i think he is simply wrong. I dont think he understands the details of the agreement. I think he is simply wrong. David so youd expect there to be more trade as a practical matter. Is ther
0year, we probably have to be looking at a global recession. We are going to test 1 . A lot of things would have to go incredibly wrong to get the 1 . You have to have a recession to get there. The u. S. Economy could go to recession. Unless the market begins to price an additional cuts, the 10 year at most will drop down to the 160 range. The fed will have to ease again. The fed is going nowhere. If there is any sort of weakness in the data, you will see an outsized rally in bonds. Jonathan joining me, kathy jones, george bory, and in chicago, jim bianco. Jim, lets begin with you, looking out to 2020, it seems the consensus view is for rates they are or go lower. Where you come down in that debate right now . Jim i think thats probably right. Rates will probably drift lower. Thats been the story the last 10 years. Weve had no inflation, we are in a record expansion, we cannot generate any inflation right now, rates are down 75 basis on ts this year, at least the 10year yield. The path
Looking at a global recession. We are going to test 1 . A lot of things would have to go incredibly wrong to get the 1 . You have to have a recession to get there. The u. S. Economy could go to recession. And less the market begins to price an additional cuts, the 10 year will drop down to the 160 range. The fed will have to ease again. If there is any sort of weakness in the data, you will see an outside shrouding in bonds. Jonathan joining me, kathy, george, and in chicago, jim. Lets begin with you, looking out to 2020, it seems the consensus view is for rates to remain the way they are or go lower. Where you come down in that debate . Probablyink thats right that rates will drift lower. Thats been the story the last 10 years. Weve had no inflation, we are in a record expansion, we cannot generate inflation right now, rates are down 75 basis points this year based on the 10 year yield. The path of least resistance has been lower and i dont think that will tend going into 2020. Kathy
Still attractive, but not breaking out. 120 by the end of the year. If we get 120 by the end of the 10 year, we probably have to be looking at a global recession. We are going to test 1 . A lot of things would have to go incredibly wrong to get the 1 . You have to have a recession to get there. The u. S. Economy could go to recession. Unless the market begins to price an additional cuts, the 10 year at most will drop down to the 160 range. The fed will have to ease again. The fed is going nowhere. If there is any sort of weakness in the data, you will see an outsized rally in bonds. Jonathan joining me, kathy jones, george bory, and in from chicago, jim bianco. Jim, lets begin with you, looking out to 2020, it seems the consensus view is for rates to remain where they are are or go lower. Where you come down in that debate right now . Jim i think thats probably right. Rates will probably drift lower. Thats been the story the last 10 years. Weve had no inflation, we are in a record expa
120 by the end of the year. If we get 120 by the end of the 10 year, we probably have to be looking at a global recession. We are going to test 1 . A lot of things would have to go incredibly wrong to get the 1 . You have to have a recession to get there. The u. S. Economy could go to recession. Unless the market begins to price an additional cuts, the 10 year at most will drop down to the 160 range. The fed will have to ease again. The fed is going nowhere. If there is any sort of weakness in the data, you will see an outsized rally in bonds. Jonathan joining me, kathy jones, george bory, and in chicago, jim bianco. Jim, lets begin with you, looking out to 2020, it seems the consensus view is for rates to remain where they are are or go lower. Where do you come down in that debate right now . Jim i think thats probably right. Rates will probably drift lower. Thats been the story the last 10 years. Weve had no inflation, we are in a record expansion, we cannot generate any inflation ri