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As economists continue to move toward the view that a near-term recession has been averted (less than half of those surveyed in October by the Wall Street Journal expect a recession within twelve months, the lowest level since June 2022), they continue to grapple with conflicting data points. As is the case in any soft landing, positive macro-economic data points like 3Q-2023 GDP growth of 5.2% and positive October inflation data are often counter-balanced by negative economic data points like the ISM index remaining below 50 and October payrolls surprising to the downside.

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