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By Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets 10-year yields broke through 1.25% during the overnight session on what can best be described as pressing a crowded trade. We re certainly onboard with a challenge of 1.25% and 1.273% (March 19th peak) beyond there, if for no other reason than late-Friday s selloff has created more questions than answers suggesting the underlying momentum evident during the overnight session must run its course before any retracement is in the offing. Moreover, the lack of an immediate bearish trigger also implies the recent bout of weakness has taken on a different character than had the march toward higher yields been accompanied by a fundamental data event or an influx of Treasury supply. In fact, the relatively smooth takedown of the February refunding left investors with the impression the supply concession in place prior to the auctions themselves would be sufficient. It s the reemergence of the bearish trend in the absence of an identifiable catalyst

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