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[Crossposted from https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/omicron with a few small updates to the estimates from the last couple days] My thoughts on how Omicron affects Covid risk and what we should do about it. In particular, I wanted to address some common questions I've seen along the lines of "since it's less severe shouldn't I worry less?" and "is it so transmissible that everyone's going to get it, and if so is there any point in trying to avoid it?" SUMMARY tl;dr: it's worse than Delta and not as bad as during the 2020 surges (since that was before vaccines). Your risk of getting infected and hospitalized has likely gone up by over 5x since before the surge (that’s accounting for Omicron being less severe). I think we should take stronger protection measures during January in particular when the risk is highest and treatment most strained. How much does Omicron increase the risk to me? Your Covid infection risk for the same

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