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1/22/2021 8:50:37 AM GMT
The question we have is whether markets are still too positive? The virus keeps spreading, data is sliding, and mutant variants may be immune to the vaccine. As we end the week, we have to hope that the stimulus packages keep working and trust in the science!
We still feel that we have seen the peak of optimism to start the year and that risk sentiment should pull back to match the deteriorating virus situation and disappointing vaccine roll out.
After strong New Zealand CPI this morning NZD now has a good story for further strength which supports the bullish technical indicators. Over the coming months an important question will be which central banks begin to exit the extreme monetary measures first. So far RBNZ looks like the front runner given New Zealand’s firm control of the virus and increasing inflation.