in the second half of the year. unless something changes that we are not aware of. so possibly it may be that their analysis is a little bit out of date because certainly in the second half of last year, the bank of england is being what we now know to be too pessimistic about its own growth forecast. it was expecting us to be in recession towards the end of last year and we know that is now probably unlikely from the way the data is coming in. so it may be that we look back on today s news and think that the imf was being a bit too sombre about the uk. having said that the underpinning analysis and the reasons behind the slowdown is certainly uncontroversial. the only thing that is not sure is how large and effective it is. thing that is not sure is how large and effective it is. look to some of the reasons and effective it is. look to some of the reasons to and effective it is. look to some of the reasons to be optimistic - and effective it is. look to some of the reasons to be