UK Defence Intelligence believes that Russia's loss of combat helicopters as a result of Ukraine's first use of ATACMS at an airfield in Berdiansk will significantly affect the capabilities of Russian forces on this part of the front.
UK intelligence believes that the Kerch Bridge, although restored after damage, will be limited in providing Russian transport to occupied Crimea and will also require significant Russian resources to protect against new attacks.
The Russian Armed Forces fear losing their warships, which outweighs Moscow's desire to block Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea, UK Defence Intelligence believes. Source: the UK Defence Intelligence review dated 14 October on Twitter, as reported by European Pravda Quote: "The risk of further military losses and the dire political consequences of Russian naval forces overtly attacking merchant shipping would highly likely outweigh any gain from attempting to enforce a blockade of Ukrainian
UK Defence Intelligence has suggested that Russia has not launched missile strikes on Ukraine for three weeks due to the fact that the Russian Air Force is waiting for more missiles. Source: UK Defence Intelligence review on Twitter (X) dated 13 October Quote: "Russian Air Force Long Range Aviation (LRA) aircraft have not conducted a strike against Ukraine since 21 September 2023, a period of 21 days.
UK Defence Intelligence has stated that international isolation has forced Russia to refocus its foreign policy efforts on previously less desirable partnerships, including with Iran, for diplomatic, economic and military support.