history of the black voters from 1976 to 2020. people can read it at our website. let s start with the turnout because we were just talking about how fascinating this is. in 2004, 60% african-american turnout in general elections. it goes up for president obama in 2008, 2012, comes back down in 2016. so what are you expecting and projecting for 2020? this one of the big open questions that i think the election could swing on in 2020. that turnout pattern you re looking at right there, 08 and 12 those are historical elections, barack obama, elected and re-elected and look at the black turnout in the general election there. you think of the difference between 08 and 12, extremely high black turnout and big victories. and kerry lost to george w. bush and in 2016, lower black turnout, hillary clinton losing narrowly, very narrowly to donald trump. one of those questions is what
it s changed, it is now 60,000 votes for scott in the senate race. in the governor s race the margin for ron desantis now approaching 100,000. you re at 83,000. 83,000 is the margin for ron desantis in that race, again, a similar turnout pattern holds there as well. we are on it, we ll stay on it. we have to sneak in another break here. with this proviso, we ll bust out of any commercials for any major calls we have at our election headquarters here in new york as you look at the state of the florida senate race. if we re gonna steal christmas,
today? dr. larry sabato, how are you doing, sir? it has been some time. welcome back here. so go ahead and handicap it. where do you think the race stands as of this hour? the fox poll had jones up 10. another poll released at the same time had moore up 9. a third poll came out the same day that had it in between those two numbers. it is december 12th. we aren t used to having elections right before christmas, two weeks before christmas. i don t think the people of alabama are, either. nobody knows what the turnout pattern is going to be, which will determine this race. how many people vote, where they are from. i noted just about everybody has learned from november 2016, every single ratings agency, including mine, has this race as a toss-up. we aren t about to change it until the votes come in. bill: i got you. playing a safe card, aren t you? probably smart.
every now and then all the polls are wrong and the turnout pattern is very different than they projected and that the rest of us projected. but let s remember it is very rare. the truth is, i don t think lets remember it is very rare. the truth is i don t think there s been a single professional poll that i would rely upon since august that hasn t had terry mcauliffe leading. his polling average is plus eight or so. you mentioned a poll that came out this morning that has him up six. that same poll last week had him up four. you can average them together. i think it s a pretty stable lead for terry mcauliffe. it would be truly remarkable if he didn t win at this point. larry, great to see you, sir. thank you. thank you, thomas. so we asked and you answered, the question being gay rights in the workplace. do you think the republican party will ever embrace ending discrimination against lgtb
schaller. i teased texas before the break i was very respectful, but abby you wrote about this for the american prospect series we re talking about. i want to set this up by putting up a telling statistic about texas. these are the state s demographics according to 201 kr census. you look at that and you say, i totally get why democrats are always talking about turning text next blue. say, why haven t they done it already? this is the actual turnout pattern, 2010. we didn t have numbers for 2012 because they didn t do an exit poll in 2013. whites, 67%. latino, 17%. black, 13%. asian, 1%. abby, what s going on in texas? well, i think one of the things that s been a real problem in texas is you ve always had this fight over the white vote, right? which we were eluding e ing tin the rest of the south as well. and texas demographics are