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Margin Debt Is Reaching A Rare Extreme
Debt, debt, and more FOMO.
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Source: topdowncharts.com and my annotations
Ratio of leveraged longs to shorts is at around 3.5, which is 2014-2019 average of around 2.2. Bad news (common signal of upcoming correction or sell-off). Basically, we are witnessing a FOMO-fueled chase of every-rising hype and risk appetite. Meanwhile, margin debt is up 70% y/y in March 2021, although from low base back in March 2020, now back to levels of growth comparable only to pre-dot.com crash in 1999-2000. Adjusting for market cap - some say this is advisable, though I can t see why moderating one boom-craze indicator with another boom-craze indicator is any better - things are more moderate.
Long-Term Unemployment Is Headed The Wrong Way econintersect.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from econintersect.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in
US vs EU27 comparatives in the pandemic dynamics through the week 12 of 2021 are showing continued, albeit declining improvement in the relative position of the US. That said, much of the improvement is down to lags in new waves development, with the EU27 now firmly in its Wave 3 and the U.S. potentially entering Wave 4.
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Based on the table and charts posted above, Europe (EU27) has now lost the plot on containing the pandemic. This takes place at the time when EU27 is botching roll out of vaccinations. On the more optimistic side, the U.S. roll out of vaccines has been relatively fast-paced, although logistics and delivery have been highly varied across different states and effectiveness can be significantly improved.
The scariest chart compares the Employment Index plots for each of the previous eleven recession-recovery cycles since World War II.
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Despite some positive headline numbers on some labor market metrics, jobs creation in the U.S. is
not progressing well-enough to claim any end in sight for the Covid19-induced recession. Current reading for jobs index, relative to pre-recession highs is woeful. So woeful, today s state of U.S. markets ranks as the second worst jobs recession in modern history, so far, worse than the Great Recession.