Friday’s implied forward rate curve shows a quick rise in 1-month rates to an initial peak of 3.46%, versus 3.32% last week. The probability of an inverted yield remains high.
Today's forecast shows only modest adjustments in the 10-year distribution for interest rates, knowing full well something is going to happen on Wednesday.
In this forecast, we focus on the future probability of the recession-predicting inverted yield curve, probability of negative rates, and probability distribution of U.S. Treasury yields.