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presence for a long time. i don t think they are going to be holding any ground two years from now. that doesn t mean they are not going to have good days in the interim. even a force that s losing has good days. think of the germans, battle of the bulge, even though it s clear that they are losing the entire war in europe. you can always have a good day when you re losing the campaign. what gives you the confidence that we ll see isis dispelled from iraq in 12 to 24 months? once we stop islamic state advance and didn t take baghdad and didn t take erbil, once we started renewed our training effort and start the iraqi forces regenerating and once the shia militias came up from the south and started holding things down, then it was a matter of time before all of these people are kicked back. and if something like that does happen it will also benefit bashar al assad, there was discussion of these terrible