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Prepare for a long climb
The pandemic’s economic upheaval is unprecedented, but previous downturns offer insights on how credit card portfolios might respond
December 17, 2020 by Karen Bankston, CU Management
In many ways, the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic bears little resemblance to the circumstances that produced the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Still, credit card managers can apply some lessons learned from the last downturn to short-term forecasts and planning to manage their portfolios.
Realistically, credit unions should prepare for lower revenue generation from their credit card portfolio for at least the next two years, cautions Tim Kolk, owner of TRK Advisors, Peterborough, New Hampshire. He cites a variety of factors behind this forecast: The prime rate is down 225 basis points from the end of 2018, which means yields have decreased 200 basis points on average. Even before the pandemic, credit unions’ charge-off rates had been creeping up for y