TO believe or not to believe? That is the question surrounding the bombshell evidence given by Dominic Cummings to the Commons Health, and Science and Technology committees this week. On one hand, it’s tempting to accept his narrative given so much of it chimes with what we already knew about Boris Johnson (that he is unfit to lead the UK) or suspected (that he responded with his usual bluster to dire warnings about the dangers of Covid). And some of his claims, if true, will surely be backed up by others who were present in meetings, or by digital communications.
Last modified on Fri 28 May 2021 12.20 EDT
The Cambridge professor whose argument against a herd immunity strategy helped trigger England’s first lockdown has voiced concerns about the risks of easing restrictions next month.
Prof Sir Tim Gowers sent Dominic Cummings a five-page document warning of the need to “move urgently to extreme containment measures” in March last year. Boris Johnson’s former chief aide told MPs this week it had influenced a critical change in the government’s early thinking, with lockdown announced two days later.
In an interview with the Guardian, Gowers said “things will get bad very, very quickly” after 21 June – the fourth and final lockdown-lifting step – if the government had misjudged factors such as the spread of new Covid variants.
Last modified on Fri 28 May 2021 12.01 EDT
Dominic Cummings contacted the world-leading mathematician Prof Sir Tim Gowers in March last year when the prime ministerâs then chief adviser said he was agonising over whether the government should impose a lockdown.
Gowers told him he thought it was necessary to move urgently to implement âextreme containment measuresâ. He also drew up a document, called Questions about Coronavirus Policyâ, in which he explained the maths behind the argument against a policy of âherd immunityâ.
The government has denied claims it pursued a herd immunity policy early in the pandemic, though Cummings insisted this was the original plan. It was also cited at the time by chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, who said herd immunity could be built up if 60% of the population caught the virus.
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Pressure is intensifying on Boris Johnson to delay England’s planned release from lockdown restrictions on 21 June, after new figures showed rising infections and hospitalisations and scientists warned premature relaxation could lead to a dangerous spike in Covid-19.
Concerns were fuelled by the announcement of 4,182 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK the highest daily number since the end or March as well as new estimates that the all-important R rate of reproduction of the disease has now risen back above the crucial level of 1, meaning the virus is spreading exponentially.
Downing Street insists that it is too early to say whether the prime minister will be able to give the go-ahead on 14 June for the removal of most remaining curbs a week later, after he warned on Thursday that the country may have to wait longer.
During his evidence to MPs, Dominic Cummings laid out the events that led up to the first COVID lockdown on 23 March last year and some of the events after.