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All together now: the most reliable is the covid-19 model set Each week, the team not only predicts each point, but predicts a single result (say, there will be 500 deaths in a week). They also present probabilistic predictions that quantify uncertainty by calculating the probability of the number of cases or deaths from time to time, as they become increasingly narrow, targeting the central prediction. For example, a model can predict that the probability of seeing 100 to 500 deaths is 90 percent, that the 50 percent is between 300 and 400, and that the 10 percent probability is between 350 and 360. “It’s like a bull’s eye, it’s more and more focused,” Reich says.

Baden wübergTilmann gneitingAlessandro vespignaniAshleigh tuiteJohannes bracherJustin lesslerEuropean centerScenario modeling centerDalla lana school of public healthHeidelberg institute for theoreticalUniversity of torontoInstitute for theoretical studies heidelberg institutesNortheastern universityJohns hopkins bloomberg school of public healthKarlsruhe institute of technologyDalla lana school