Demographic group and far outfaces nikki haley by almost 30 points. her campaign welcomed the results last night as a sign of momentum where she edged out ron desantis. while trump flew in last night, but it s far clear from the gamble whether it will pay off. the wild card, monday night, is the dangerous cold front bearing down on iowa. with the temperature expected near 20 degrees below zero. the candidates urged their support toers brave the cold, to go caucus tomorrow. but we ll have to wait and see how much the bone-chilling weather and dangerous roads ends up affecting the turnout and the results. joining me now from iowa is my state of the union co-host and friend, dana bash, to help us mark the 15th anniversary of state of the union this week. thanks so much for getting up early and joining. i m glad you re not outside.
Outperform that poll and do very well with and move past new hampshire. the pollster at the table, nikki haley probably saw the poll and thought awesome, i m in second place. then you dive into the cross tabs, and as david points out, the enthusiasm is not there compared to the other two major candidates. and a lot of the support is not coming from republicans. that s right. i think that s going to create a big problem, because it s not just iowa that you have to win over republicans to win the republican primary, but a lot of these other states. you know, new hampshire may well be the aberration on the pathway. a lot of independents vote in new hampshire. for somebody like nikki haley, she needs this boost of iowa to prove that she s not just a one-state candidate who only wins in places with lots of independents and moderates. it is concerning, the numbers underneath the surface. with that said, it doesn t seem likely that ron desantis is going to win the iowa caucuses.
Nikki haley has spent more than $30 million here in iowa. much more than anybody else. so she s really investing here, but nothing, jake, like ron desantis. he s all in here. he says it s not make or break here, but if you just look at where the campaign is, his campaign and more importantly his super pack, which has been running the show here in iowa, they have been talking about the vaunted organization that they have. i talked to an aide yesterday, saying that they have knocked on more than 900,000 doors. they do have the same precinct captains that donald trump has. i met a few of them yesterday. they have pretty much pulled up stakes in new hampshire, and all of their eggs are in the iowa basket. so yes, he is not as high in sort of the overall horse race number in that important des moines register poll that came out last night. but his support is more sticky, and the organization that the
Place. the reason that works for joe biden is there was an electoral path for him. there was a more diverse electorate in nevada and south carolina. that was from a campaign perspective. that was always the strategy that we knew we were not going to do as well in the first two states. so we needed to get to nevada and south carolina. so the talent is the field. this field, there isn t a path for a ron desantis or i would argue even a nikki haley, obviously bakari knows her well from serving with him. i just said she s formidable. no question. but a weak showing in iowa, there s not a strategic path for these guys. donald trump has gone wire-to-wire with all of the key coalitions within the republican party that you need to become the republican nominee. so a fourth place finish, a third place finish in iowa for these guys when they don t really have a path in these other states, won t have the same path.
So i also don t know what his path forward looks like beyond turning his attention toward 2028. at the beginning of december, ron desantis said he was going to win iowa. governor desantis lied. not lied, it was an inaccurate prediction. i don t want to write off nikki haley just yet you re a former south carolina state representative and you know her. i know her. she s one of the more skillful politicians in the country. she s really good in front of an audience and good with retail politics. so she s somebody that donald trump does not want to be one on one with, particularly if she s able to gain some momentum out of iowa. if she creeps into second place and wins by a point or two, or not wins but beats ron desantis by a point or two, performs well in new hampshire. then you have south carolina where you had a decent one on one race with her and donald trump that.