polling at a dead heat. it is, it always is. here is the rub in a place like ohio. j. d. vance shouldn t be where he is. he should be above 50% in ohio. and he isn t. the fact that the democratic candidate is at 45, 46, 47 in that range, depending on the polling, that tells you how competitive the races. it tells you also very much as we saw in kansas that republicans, who are not getting counted or being assumed to vote or lean on a particular way. they aren t sold on vance s campaign. they may just in fact say, do you know what? i m going to do it, okay grandma, don t look. i m going to vote for the democrat. that is good for democrats at this stage, particularly as we
feedback loop. he democrat he demagogues more on crime and the problems are, that is kind of limited to the defender self with because she can say, as many democrats are saying, it s not the bailout laws, it s not a bailout. laws but peoples perceptions, a feeling unsafe, certain incidents that get blown up and media and social media. to particularly by the new york post is influential. it all takes a toll. it s also the case, as new yorkers, there are certain categories of time the people are genuinely pretty freaked out. but, it s also to your point, we ve seen this time and time again. it s like the ads, the coverage you are locked in a cycle right now and he s benefited from it. the thing i keep coming back to, he s a cosponsor i think of one of the criminalizing abortion federally laws. right, am i right about that? not sure. i think, he signed on one of
tim ryan and j. d. vance, vance is clearly underperforming in the polling. it is possible the polling is off, people in his office in ohio so i don t know what the reality is. but it keeps being this 45, 46 race. there is a great dispatch from ben that people should read about the j. d. vance campaign, which seems underwhelming and lackluster, although i think he is still favored. a number of you have pointed out, you can get to 45 or 46 in a state like ohio if you the democrat and you are running a good race. the question is the next five. and you see north carolina, they re getting these places where if there is lack of enthusiasm for your opponent, fine, but you have to get the next five after the 45, that s the difference between winning or losing, even if you re
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