The Suppressed Economy, Impressive Earnings, U.S. Treasury Curve, Pandemic Watch I want you to think about how quickly the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve is moving.
Feb 22, 2021 | 07:38 AM EST
After The Winter (excerpt)
Where towers the cotton tree
An leaps the laughing crystal rill
And works the droning bee
And we will build a cottage there
Beside an open glade
And ferns that never fade
- Claude McKay (2003)
Pressure
I think, maybe that it was not just me. Financial markets are reaching for an inflection point. changing rapidly while equity markets for the most part stood in place last week. Don t get me wrong. Equity markets feel as if there is a need to sell off in response to what we see in both debt and commodities markets. Equity index futures reflect that yearning instinct overnight, right now as I type. Yet, there is also a fear that reigns in instinct. Fear of missing out? Perhaps. Fear of taking profits ahead of a fiscally fueled melt-up? Oh, we ha
Shock & Awe Markets, Bank Stocks, Apple s Debt Move, Trading Amazon, ServiceNow Right off the top, the bubble has burst for the short squeeze names such as GameStop and AMC Entertainment.
Feb 03, 2021 | 07:28 AM EST
Retired General Tommy Franks never cared for the term shock and awe , and really did not see his tactics in the way they were described by the mainstream media back in 2003, as U.S. forces invaded Iraq. The U.S. made use of overwhelming air superiority backed by the rapid use of just as overwhelming ground forces. The whole idea of such an intense show of force is to rapidly dominate the area of operations in such a way as to deteriorate the enemy s perception of their own capabilities. To paralyze them in either fear, confusion or both.
Beware Market Land Mines: Stimulus, Vaccine Failure, Interest Rates
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When the market cap of equities reaches 183% of GDP and gov t bonds yield near 0%, or even less overseas, the notion that one can just buy and hold a balanced portfolio is extremely dangerous. The minefield is not packed with IEDs, it is actually replete with tactical nukes.
One of those land mines would be the failure to keep government open and pass more stimulus. I have no special insight here except D.C. is famous for brinkmanship but always opts to spend more money in the end. Another problem would be the failure to have a peaceful transfer of power come Jan. 20
When the market cap of equities reaches 183% of GDP and government bonds yield near 0%, or even less overseas, the notion that one can just buy and hold a balanced portfolio is extremely dangerous. The minefield is not packed with IEDs; it is actually replete with tactical nukes.
One of those land mines would be the failure to keep the government open and pass more stimulus. I have no special insight here, except D.C. is famous for brinkmanship but always opts to spend more money in the end. Another problem would be the failure to have a peaceful transfer of power come January 20th. Also, the failure of vaccines to prove to be safe, effective and long lasting would blow the whole recovery mantra sky high.