Front, showing continued moderation. The market is pricing in the summer. That is quite reasonable. They have room to be very patient. Likely you could see the rate cuts get pushed back. There is a cyclical Recovery Room in this economy which may or may not support that june cut. The baseline remains two or three cuts starting in june. Hopefully now we have less chatter about a hike or no hikes this year. This is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramovitz, and annmarie hordern. Jonathan good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. Your equity market is negative by one third of 1 on the s p 500. Chairman powell says he needs more evidence. He will get more evidence this week. Cpi, ppi, retail sales, jobless claims all on deck. Lisa cpi is on deck tomorrow, likely the biggest. Will a decline in yearoveryear cpi, when you strip out food and energy, falling to 3. 7 be sufficient to cut rates . Maybe not this month but maybe in june. Jonathan that data has whipsawed market
Good morning. This is bloomberg daybreak europe. I am in london. These are the stories that that your agenda. A weak picture on asian markets as fed officials to further rate hikes debate further rate hikes. You can russias commodity export. Oil is steady. Benjamin netanyahu tells bloomberg exclusively he will not pursue the entire overhaul originally planned by his government. I will still give it several months to try to get another consensus. It will probably be about the composition of the community that elects judges. Not to get into a point where the Legislature Just knocks out any decision that the court needs. There has to be a balance. Request good morning. Happy monday. Welcome to a new week. Treasury radios are edging higher. All of that after that mixed u. S. Jobs report. Just as there was in the latest fed speak. Him talking about a pivot to a hold and her talking about potentially more hikes. Traders pricing about a 40 chance of another quarterpoint hike by the end of the
Your equity market slightly negative on the s p 500 for the second or third time this week, waking up and looking at china. To the data and commentary around that economy right now. New loans extended on chinese banks ranging to the lowest since 2009, there are concerns about what is developing in the worlds secondlargest economy. Tom you look at the income statement dynamics and the Balance Sheet statement dynamics. I agree. I believe i mentioned this the day before. The flows on the Balance Sheet in and out are what matter. This is fbi from us to them off a cliff from them to us. Maybe not a cliff, but it is down. Jonathan the data dropped in the last hour. The response clear from many on the south side. Stop gin weighing in. We will see. We have not seen it. Lisa what kind of stimulus when they are concerned about debt load in local governments . If they want to move away from leverage and create a more sustainable economy, how do they stimulate the economy where you look at these l
Morning. This bloomberg surveillance. More than a decade since the last one, s p Global Rating the gene the top rating for u. S. Of america. Fitch follows up after the close yesterday with this quote, the written downgrade of u. S. Reflects the expected physical deterioration over the next three years. The erosion of governance relative to aa and aaa rated peers. Whether it is justified, and if it matters, are two different questions. Lisa i would agree as this is the second Major Company to downgrade u. S. From aaa rating. The response arbitrary and based on outdated data. That is janet yellen. Larry summers the idea that it is a decreased default risk is absurd. Here is the question, is there Something Real behind this in terms of how much Interest Rate expenses are going up and like a convention there is on capitol hill . Jonathan theres governance issues u. S. Has that is inconsistent with other aaa rated peers like germany. Lisa i would agree because we were talking about u. S. Po
On radio and television, what you need to know, a data check into our discussion this morning. The markets are on the move. Just one icon from the Northern Pacific rim, the japanese yen through 1. 50 is historic. Lisa its not just the yen, the bond yields are continuing to go up and youre seeing softness in areas where we see companies outperform. When we reach a Tipping Point . We are not there yet. Tom Julian Emanuel will join us later. Its real simple, he says the fed cannot be happy. You see that with the unraveling of the two sent spread. Lisa the market maybe is doing the work for them but its not clear its actually doing the work thats needed. We will get a gdp figure today that shows a reacceleration in growth that is not what the fed wants to see. We saw a blowout number yesterday of new home sales. The fed is not counting on this to drive down inflation. Tom im drowning in the narrative. Katherine greifeld is joining us this morning. Gdp, first look, 4. 5 . We are struggling.