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if that were to happen, that might be considered reasonable. but that s not what s going on. the ballot, which has been produced for this referendum, has two choices. the people in crimea can vote for independence from ukraine, or they can vote for annexation from russia. not being offered the choice to vote for staying in ukraine. it s worth remembering that 20 years ago, more than 20 years ago, in fact, there was a referendum in ukraine to ukrainian independence. every region of ukraine, including crimea at that time, voted to be independent from russia. the last census in crimea was in 2001. 13 years ago. according to that census, 58% of the population of crimea was russian. that means that today, there is less than 58% of the crimean population is russian. the tartar community is much larger today than then. so give me conventional wisdom where this would go in terms of a vote. it s very simple.