challenger, only 4%. if you re the republicans and you re trying to do your math. jen kiggans the republican challenger. we re just in the northern virginia suburbs. this is down to southeast virginia. virginia beach along the coast and the atlantic ocean. in this district here this is elaine luria. it s democrat by 1.8. this is a very competitive district. less competitive district as you go through. if the republicans can hold these seats in virginia and we re early, the republicans are hoping to get two out of the three. if they get three out of the three, then you know back to your term. there s a democratic pollster that is a wise man. he told me there are three things he is looking at. he s looking at these seats in order to get an idea of how the night s going to go. one is these three seats. the other one is new hampshire s
a republicani area in a year yo know we talk about the spanberger district in virginia. so the only way to counter that is to take some from them. the anna luna district, this a district that donald trump carried according to the new lines, would have carried in these new lines by 6.6 percentage points. it s a republican district. not by a ton. you know, you have but you have to keep it. republicans kept it. that s the challenge, to keep your map. then you move over here, the district here, a much more competitive district. a new seat. this is a new seat. had the lines been in place in 2020 t donald trump would have con this by three points. that s much more competitive district, right? and republicans hold it. that s the challenge, right. you have to pick up where you can. you come back out and you come across and you go across the swath of inte-5 here. corey milson winning over here. republican 5 1/2, right? a republican district but not a comfortably republican district.
waiting for election day votes, 23% reporting there. one of the key races. again let s check in to see in the commonwealth of pennsylvania. a few more votes in. again coming in democratic areas. the first in al gain any county. remember braddock, pennsylvania, where john fetterman was the mayor is out in this area. 84% right there. a long way to go, jake, in your home state, the commonwealth of pennsylvania. thanks. and we have some projections for you now. three projections for republicans running for the house of representatives. in florida trump endorsed army veteran corey mills representing seminole county. republican air force veteran luna cnn projecting winning a red leaning district, including st. petersburg, world at turning point usa. in florida laura lee is a winner in a newly drawn tampa area district, a former florida secretary of state. let s look at the balance of power now in the house of
longest serve house democrats, her district used to stop here and stretch this way over towards cleveland a little bit, right? they made it more republican. yeah. so now they have taken it away and put her out here. let me show you the presidential race in 2020 in ohio. this is her old district here and they drew the rest in right there. let s come back to 2022 and see how she is doing. this is a fascinating race. number one, can a democratic incumbent hold on in a republican district in a tougher year running against jr mcjuicy. we are only at 1%. only at 1%. as you see the ohio map, i w will early voter tends to be disproportionately democratic. you see another house race, cincinnati in the suburbs to the
essentially the democrats need to flip that. they cannot split the competitive seats. they cannot even win 60% of the competitive seats. they have to win even more than th that. this is the full house map as it fills in. let s just isolate those competitive seats because they re in very important places. again, you see the gray. these are where the polls are still open. look what s filling in so far. what do you see? a lot of red. so you have one of the races in new hampshire. these results are very early. so we need to be careful here. but the democratic incumbent here is chris pappis, 28-26. we just have the very early votes here. don t jump to conclusions but this is how we ll be watching this. this is a white working-class district in the state of new hampshire. if they can pick up that kind of district here, then you think, all right, what disrinks are like that as you move west. that s how we ll do the calculations through the night.