Iran, Russia, and the Syrian regime are coordinating military operations in eastern Syria likely as part of a coercive campaign to expel the United States from Syria. Iran and the Syrian regime have surged forces and materiel to eastern Syria since July
As 2023 begins, flux and instability remain the only constants in the Middle East. The Arab world today is filled with broken and partially collapsed polities. Yemen, Libya and Syria are subject to de facto division, and occupation by foreign forces.
There is a chance that the war in and US focus on Ukraine could lead Iran to believe it can exploit this chaotic time to encourage its proxies to attack Israel.
While the current situation in Syria does not threaten Israel, the moderate Arab states are pursuing a path of diplomacy that, if successful, is likely to result in an Iran-controlled deep state alongside a nominal government.