to win a republican primary democratic primary, black voters, particularly black women-r just sort of demographic cornerstone. it s not true in new hampshire and iowa. so the early coverage tends to gloss that. but if you re talking about south carolina, that s how barack obama won south carolina and if i were the clinton people this is the one thing that would really give me pause. this is clinton s african-american support. down among black democrats 31% from july to october. you can see that sharp line there on the right. that is the thing if you re the clinton campaign, you can deal with losing new hampshire, there s a lot of things you can deal with. the thing you can t deal ws w. is that. you can lose iowa and new hampshire and be comfortable as long as you are guaranteed you re till going to come back and win. their firewall is south carolina. they need african-american voters. what s really interesting is hillary clinton, what she still lacks is really sort of almost an end
i don t think he will be the nominee. god is good to me but not that good. what will croak him? as tom pointed out, first, he was the king of birtherism. that seems to be work republicans. did he accuse mexican immigrants. being rapists and murderers and all that nonsense. he attacked the fox news host for doing her job. he attack john mccain for being a p.o. wsw. what will hurt this guy? if they love all that, what will it take to bring him back down to earth? you compare his favorability ratings with jeb bush. his unfavorability has gone up 8 points from a month ago. that can t be good news for the campaign. it can t be good news for the campaign. they have decided to wage a tortoise and hare campaign. i think we are going to see something of a shift in the next weeks as the super pac.