argument first. that s the one that you are talking about which is the economic one that s most drawn upon now that there is a correlation between what is a growth factor in the economy and in the emerging market economies and the price of oil. that has not been historically the case. we had a very steady oil price from 1908 to 2000. we had plenty of times of double digit growth. so i m not about to buy that. that s been very much an economic argument about where oil prices have been going. first part of the argument is obvious. and that is about the supply issues there are surrounding the geopolitical situation first and foremost in iran but iran is not the only place. most important. but there s trouble in sudan we know about. syria has trouble. and we are no exactly sure where each is going to work out and how safe the production there is. and libya, for example, we have seen production come back online. there are lots of supply shops