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Mainstream media and the large mining companies are finally catching on to what we at AOTH have been saying for the past two years: the copper market is heading for a severe supply shortage due to a perfect storm of under-exploration/ lack of discovery of new deposits, clashing with a huge increase in demand due to electrification and decarbonization.
Dramatic price rise
Copper is trading over $4.00 a pound this year on rapidly tightening physical markets, rebounding economic growth especially in China, the top metals consumer, and the expectation that the era of low inflation in key economies may soon be over.
I just talked with one of the most successful hedge fund managers in the country (in terms of returns over the last four years). He will not allow me to use his name. But I can tell you he is a raging bull.
He believes the stimulus that we already had plus what we will get coupled with a major infrastructure bill, plus extraordinarily easy monetary policy, combined with significant new technology innovations adds up to a new bull market.
This is someone with 5X returns over the last four years with a very diverse portfolio. So it could pay to pay attention.
Many investors sense that the country, and the world, has drifted into uncharted territory.
The last year has been extraordinary. There have been COVID lockdowns, a disputed presidential election, and multi-trillion-dollar federal deficits and bailouts. The Federal Reserve has injected more money into markets than ever before.
This insanity showed up in the physical gold and silver markets.
Bullion dealers have spent much of the past year fighting to get inventory, because investment demand for coins, bars, and rounds has never been higher.
The frustration, for both seasoned metals investors and a whole lot of newcomers, is the demand hasn’t been fully reflected in the price. Yes, silver prices have showed strength. But silver has underperformed commodities such as lumber.
Goldman Sachs economists expect that rates will continue to rise in the coming months.
Goldman analysts believe that stock valuations should be able to digest a 2% 10-year yield easily.
As such, they share 29 stocks that are still cheap within the high-absolute-valuation stock market.
After reaching a new 12-month high of 1.62% on Friday, 10-year Treasury yields retreated slightly to land at 1.61% as of Monday afternoon.
But interest rate volatility is unlikely to fade away anytime soon. The Cboe Interest Rate Swap Volatility index, which measures the implied volatility of Treasuries, was at its highest level since last March on Friday.
Goldman Sachs economists also expect that rates will continue to rise in the coming months, forecasting an 11% pace of real US GDP growth in the second quarter. As the economy continues to recover and reopen, they predict that the 10-year yield will rise to 1.8% by mid-year and 1.9% by year-end.