A key indicator of an oncoming recession implied by the U.S. bond market is no longer reliable, according to nearly two-thirds of strategists polled by Reuters. A persistent negative spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields is a key input into many analysts' models as a reliable predictor of recession, having occurred in the lead-up to nearly all recessions since 1955. The yield curve has been inverted for more than 20 months now - currently by 46 basis points - but most of the recent discussion in markets has been about the probability of no recession or even the risk of a re-acceleration in economic growth.
Inverted Yield Curve No Longer Reliable Recession Flag, Strategists Say: Reuters Poll usnews.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from usnews.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
A key indicator of an oncoming recession implied by the U.S. bond market is no longer reliable, according to nearly two-thirds of strategists polled by Reuters..