numbers are depressed and other states where it s closer. all of that factored into the national numbers doesn t factor into the states. when you just look at ohio which romney has to have, there is a path to victory for romney without ohio, but it is very difficult. obama is still up despite all the volatility and all the movement of last week, obama is still up one to three points depending on the pole in ohio. if obama gets ohio he is basically on the one yard line and romney would have to win wisconsin or nevada and iowa. in wisconsin obama is over 50% up 2 poir.5 points. in iowa up three points and gallup s approval number for obama is 52%, which is extremely healthy. there are still extremely strong and healthy numbers for obama throughout to look at. steve, i want to direct your
republican landslide that were stubbornly resistant. what s interesting is in the mid 1980s there was the farm economy which basically collapsed in the midwest. what you had was a much worse economic environment in those states and the rest of the country, you had a republican in the white house, two terms of reagan. the voters seemed to take it out on the incumbent party in a way that didn t happen anywhere else. i m looking at, for instance, a state like ohio where obama has been consistent. the economy is better in ohio than it is around the country. you have the auto bailout that obama put in place has clearly helped that state. could it be that he has a leg up in a state like ohio and a few others like iowa that he doesn t have anywhere else in the country and there are two separate elections? i m seriously wondering. there s a point to what you re making partly because if we go against steve on the numbers we re going to lose. who would do that. never. there is definitely n
been on the cycle. we have nate cohn scheduled to be on the cycle. lots of nerds. up next, more polls. the new numbers out of three states that could decide it all. good thing we have the steve of nate of nate and steve right here on the cycle for october 11th, 2012. welcome aboard! [ chuckles ] [ honk! ] [ honk! ] [ honk! ] [ male announcer ] now you ll know when to stop. [ honk! ] the all-new nissan altima with easy fill tire alert. [ honk! ] it s our most innovative altima ever. nissan. innovation that excites.
polarities will cross one more time if not more before we get to election day. howard fineman, thanks for joining us. thank you. we use lots of polls. who s up and who s down. what do they all mean? apparently even john stewart can appreciate a little poll wonkiness from the experts including our very own steve kornaki. i give you two nats and a steve. how the [ bleep ] are these polls so divergent, useless yet accurate and quotable? i think we all know what we need. nerds. so when you see obama gaining in today s gallup tracking polls that means obama s interviews were better. he fwrent three ahead to five ahead in their track today. this next round of polls from nbc marist and other polls show the swing states tied then democrats will be appropriate
summer. they improved in september from the enthusiasm standpoint. maybe now shifting back. crystal, what have you got? well, going back to what steve was saying about how the local economic numbers are having an impact in the battleground states, i would say that the local campaigns that are being run are also making a difference. if you take a look at those latest swing state numbers in ohio, there was almost one in five voters who had already cast their ballots in ohio and the president had a large margin, a large lead among those voters, 63 to 37%. that on the ground campaign matters. now it looks like the president is running a stronger on the ground campaign while romney has been doing reboot after reboot and trying to find out what his message is, the president has been banking voters. they ve been holding these get out the vote rallies. michelle obama spoke at one recently and let s take a listen. here in ohio it is already election day. [ cheers and applause ]