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chief polling analyst stephen shepherd, welcome to you and thank you for being here. you all made calculated predictions for each state in the presidential, the house as well as senate elections. headline it for me. your biggest take-aways? it s a lot. on the presidential race you know there s a big part, a big piece of the picture we don t have right now. that s the identity of the democratic presidential nominee. if as your viewers are closely following this race, that seems even more uncertain now than maybe it did a month or two ago. so we re missing a big piece of that picture. we currently see the presidential race as a toss-up overall. president trump s poll numbers are quite low. that said, he does have an advantage in some key electoral college states. from a house or senate standpoint, what were the headlines? so currently we think the house is still leaning towards democrats, democrats broke the gop s lock on the majority in
republicans, but where donald trump struggled compared to previous republican candidates in 2016. the voters there are more educated. that may be places where he wants to stay out. also, though, there are ten senate democrats running for re-election in states that donald trump won in 2016, including five he carried by double digits. west virginia, montana, indiana, missouri, north dakota. those are place where is he could potentially be useful on the trail and if he and the white house are smart, where you ll see him more than campaigning in some of these districts where congressional districts, where he s not as popular. stephen shepherd, thank you for joining us from politico. i m going to go around the table. mentioned a moment ago controversy about if democrats were to get control of the house again, if nancy pelosi would be house speaker again. of course, democratic candidate in the 12th and congressional district in ohio said he would not support nancy pelosi. one-word answers.
welcome back. the magic number for democrats this midterm is 23. that is the number of seats they need to flip to reclaim the house of representatives, but after tuesday s nail biter nail seeing signs of a potential wave. more than 50 democratic candidates now would oppose nancy pelosi as house speaker. i want to bring in my panel and joining us from washington, stephen shepherd, politico s campaigns and elections editor. start with something i read in the national review. commenting on the fact president trump is taking credit for what happened on tuesday night. that his presence there before that election made it a success for republicans. the national review whistling past the graveyard. what s your sense what that electoral result on tuesday says about the mid2erterms? you can look at a difference