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In his New Year’s message, China’s dictator Xi Jinping reiterated his promise that Taiwan will “surely be reunified with China”. Yet when the people of Taiwan, due to go to the polls to elect a new president in just over a week, look at Xi’s rule, it is unlikely that they will voluntarily choose his model of governance. That means the likelihood of China attempting to take Taiwan by force – militarily or by economic blockade or both – increases if Xi’s vision is to be fulfilled.

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