at 86.3%. silver s prediction is not an innovation, it s trend taken to its absurd extreme. his work is better summarized as an 83.6% confident that the state polls are correct. the main problem with this approach to politics is that it s trivial and election is not a mathematical equation, it s a nation making a decision. people are weighing the priorities of their society and the quality of their leaders. those views at any given moment can be roughly measured but spread sheets don t add up to a political community. in a democracy, the convictions of the public ultimately depend on persuasion, which resists quantification. and he goes on to write at the closing here, and so at the election s close, we talk of a statistical turnout in cuyahoga county, ohio, and talk little