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the house in november. they can definitely get there but it s by no means certain they are going to be able to. so the question is, is there a blue wave coming? so for democrats to get those seats, there are a lot of places they can look around the country. but there s one type of district that really stands out. it s the 25 districts across the usa that republicans hold that were also won by hillary clinton in 2016. what we re saying is that the democrats need 23 seats. and they do have 25 prime targets and there are more seats outside of this they could pick off too but the biggest problem, even if all of the ingredients are there for democrats in this age of polarization, their just may not be as many targets as there used to be. 25 obvious targets for democrats and dozens of others that they are working furiously to try to find. there s a wild card factor. in 2016, all of t$2016, all spell doom for done amd trump
house special elections. but if you just win by a point in a place where you re supposed to win by a lot, does that spell doom for november? i think what we learned last night is, one, if you look at the geography of that district, in places that are quite suburban, denser, they are the types of places where perhaps republicans did well maybe a decade ago. trending much, much bluer. a lot of these republicans who are in these suburban districts, maybe the types of places that hillary clinton won a little bit, if democrats can pick up those seats, that s going to be their path to the majority. we have 82 races. 82 republican-held seats in our races to watch. looking to november. hillary clinton carried 23 of those. that s where the democrats first look. if hillary clinton carried them in 2016, this should be a more democratic year. democrats need 23. that would be enough if they sweep those. then 59 seats carried by president trump. in where he ran weaker. where he ran weaker than in
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