Some things are nearly timeless, like this annual list of “10 Things to Do,” most of which can be applied any year. Here in Las Vegas, the time of sunrise is 6:05AM, and yes, I’ve been up for a few hours by then, not getting into bed. But can’t you almost feel the earth moving around the sun? Anchorage is picking up 6 minutes of daylight per day; Kanas City 4. Over a week that’s… uh… 7 times… well, you can figure it out per week. Every spring it is remarkable. What some consider remarkable, although not in a good way, is how we find mortgage rates in the 7s again, and the talk here at the Lenders One event is what can be done about it. Despite the yield curve being inverted (2-year yields are .8 percent higher than 10-year yields), once again IMBs are searching for hidden ARM buyers, good home equity products, and continuing to offer down payment assistance programs, bond programs, and buydowns. But for many, the hope of 30-year f
I am very happy that my life is perfect. Isn’t yours? When I order scrambled eggs at the diner, the waitress says, “Perfect.” When I pay with a credit card at the car wash, the attendant replies with, “Perfect.” I tell the dry cleaner I’d like my shirts not wrapped in plastic. “Perfect.” Watch out for those “perfects” out there. One thing that was definitely not perfect was the ending of 2022 for residential lenders and their vendors. Just because the calendar turned a day or two doesn’t mean rates have done much, nor margins, nor revenue. Ready for a repeat of the 4th quarter of 2022 in the 1st quarter of 2023? Have vendors and lenders made the necessary cuts, in sales and operations, to keep pace with industry volumes being down 50 percent from a few years ago? How’s your “tech spend” as you enter 2023? (Let’s ask Southwest Airlines how its low tech spend worked out. Speaking of S
The financial press seems enthralled with the business cycle. Expansion, contraction, rates and stocks up, rates and stocks down. Right now they’re all stumbling over themselves looking for signs of a recession. Recessions, of course, tend to lower rates since the demand for credit drops. European growth projections are poor. No one really knows what is going on in China. In the United States, the Federal Reserve has pushed the Fed Funds rate (the interest rate at which banks and credit unions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight) from near 0 percent to what could be 4.75 percent by year end. There are some signs of softening in the U.S. job market (like job openings declining), but household debt service levels have dropped and savings levels are doing okay. The team at the Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting appreciation levels near 0 percent for 2023 and 2024. There’s your snapshot! (Today’s podcast is available here. This wee