the same kind of people that she is. that is to say evangelical and social conservatives. he has a little bit greater appeal to catholics who are in the eastern part of the state. she s probably got a better appeal to evangelical protestants in the western part of the state. but he has a chance if he s camped out there. and what is congresswoman bachman wins iowa? well, allows them to survive a second or third place finish in new hampshire and go ton other states. we saw this with huckabee. he broke through in iowa, didn t do so well in new hampshire but it allowed him enough time to do things like run well in georgia, run well in missouri and so forth. to the extent you can general lies, if you do well in iowa you can expect do better in south carolina than new hampshire? that s my general reaction. again, i think iowa, new
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hampshire doesn t pay much attention to iowa. south carolina pace attention to new hampshire. even though we view the south carolina, we say south carolina and we think typical republican party in the south. however it s a very diverse party. you have a lot of retirees along there that came from the northwest and east and have a more moderate favor and emphasize economic and national defense issues over social issues and then in the up-country you have a party that is more likely to emphasize the social issues. and in the middle of the state you have a mix of sort of small town conservative and chamber of commerce types that emphasize both. what do you get with an endorsement like from governor christie? you get two things. you get a brief moment of positive attention where you get some of the advocates of that person and some of their detractors but you get a nice little attention. it soaks up the day or the news cycle. the second thing you can get is if they are willing to go on
suspect south carolina will be pretty good for him and 23 he keeps up the fundraising pace he can be competitive with mit romney on the tube. probably too early to be up on television. i wouldn t worry about that. rick santorum has radio ads, that s probably useful for him but if you are well-known for perry or romney or cain, it s better for you not to be on television in some of the early states but to be there in person. this was a critical mistake romney made four years ago n march, april and may of 2007, before he had really introduced himself personally to the to the people of iowa, he ran a bunch of television ads and i can t tell you how many people said he is a hot dog. he shouldn t be running television ads. we would rather see him at the dinners or the candidate forum than see his ads on television. let s assume romney and cain is the nominee, and this is a board game jumping ahead, what would they look for in terms of
he s going for the same kind of people that she is, that is to say, evangelical and social conservatives. he has a greater appeal to catholics in the eastern part of the state. she probably has a better appeal to evangelical protestants. but he s camped out there. if he is going to have a chance, it s going to be there. what if santorum or congresswoman bachmann wins iowa? what does that do in new hampshire? new hampshire doesn t pay much attention to iowa. but tell give them a bump in the national media and allow them to survive a second or third place finish in new hampshire and go on to south carolina and nevada and other states. i mean we saw this with huckabee, who broke through in iowa, didn t do so well in new hampshire. but it allowed him the time to do things like run well in georgia and missouri and so forth. to the extent you can generalize, dpow well in iowa, you can expect to do better in south carolina than in new hampshire? that s my general reaction.