Knowing what is risky and managing those risks are two different things. Knowing risk is easy, but managing the risk is more complicated than it appears. If one has not learnt this lesson in the month of March, then probably he or she needs to seriously think about whether they should invest in stocks or not. At the start of March it was well known that valuations are high so it is risky to invest in small caps. But when the fall happened, how many were able to manage the risk of investing in small caps by hedging with selling nifty futures or any other way. Probably, not many. The fact is that the old theory of taking a short position in nifty futures or buy put options to hedge your portfolio works in large caps that too only if your portfolio selects large caps. In case of small caps, the only way to manage risk is to avoid the risk by not buying bad quality stocks which are flying high due to a narrative on the street.
It is day like today when all the indices are trading in red and the leading the fall are mid and small-cap indices, and market breadth is extremely that a large number of investor look at their phones to check how is their portfolio doing, In all probability a large majority finds the decline in their portfolio is more than what Nifty has suffered and that where the doubt and question come to mind. Now two things, especially for those who have turned bulls in the last few months. First nifty or for that matter any indices have nothing to do with your portfolio, so stop comparing them. Second, do a review of your portfolio and ask yourself one simple question: why did I buy this particular stock? Was it friendly neighborhood advice or was it because there was something positive happening in the company or the industry in which this stock belongs? The answer to this question is the key to whether one should stay invested or sell the stock.
Risks are higher, but desire to own them is at the highest. This probably explains the current state of relationship between the small cap segment of the market and investors. One of the reasons for it could be the recent performance of small caps and the kind of return they have delivered in the last eight months. This has brought them in the category of stocks where the desire to own them is “highest”. But the fact which gets ignored in such conditions is that “risks” are also higher. Especially the market liquidity risk and the risk of corporate governance being thrown out of the window. There are many risks which are being ignored and largely because of one reason, the narrative and price action on the street. So, while you take risks, understand the risk and try to manage the risk.
In the last three days, including this morning when markets opened for trading, all those investors who have overloaded small caps in their portfolio have probably gone through three different emotions. Monday , my portfolio has gone dramatically, should I sell. Tuesday, my portfolio value has recovered, it was just a correction, should I buy more. This morning, once again why the value of my portfolio is down, should I sell. For all those who have gone through these emotions. Let the market be volatile, don t make volatile decisions. Corrections are part of any market and especially when valuations are high, the frequency and magnitude of correction will be higher. For all those who are looking to deploy more money and are focussed on small caps, it would be better to put more checks and balances, both qualitative and quantitative and be selective in buying stocks. More importantly, even after putting in all the efforts of checks and balances, be ready to see a short term drawn down i
As elevated valuations cap the upside in the broader market, smallcap rally was subdued but steady with 52 stocks gaining in double digits during the week. Mid and smallcaps had witnessed strong rallies over the past few months thus making valuations a little stretched.