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Slow your roll. That was the messaging communicated in the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes released earlier this week. In hindsight, Fed officials had every reason to remain cautious in timing the pivot to policy easing. Since the January 30th-31st FOMC meeting, the economic data has done little to instill further confidence that inflationary pressures will continue to recede over the coming months. Not only did the January employment report come in more than double expectations, but a few inflation indicators (including CPI, PPI, and ISM price sub-indices) all came in much hotter-than-expected in January (Chart 1).

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